IS Worcestershire about to bake in heatwaves sparked by a rare ‘super El Niño’ weather phenomenon and could the county see its hottest ever day this summer?
The phenomenon could bring erratic weather to Worcestershire later this year, raising temperatures beyond those expected this summer.
This year the El Niño is expected to officially emerge between June and August this year and could push the mercury to a new, even record high.
The highest temperature recorded in Worcestershire was 37.1°C (98.78°F) on July 19, 2022, at both Pershore College and Astwood Bank, marking the county’s hottest day on record.
El Niño and La Niña refer to warm and cool phases of a natural climate pattern that takes place across the tropical Pacific every few years.
According to the Met Office, the name ‘El Niño’ is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific.
Although its effects in the UK are not felt as keenly in the UK as other parts of the globe, the phenomenon has been linked to hotter summers and colder winters.
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An El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 °C above the long-term average. El Niño is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific with warmer than average weather.
A spokesman for the Met Office said: “There’s high confidence that El Nino will develop later this year.
“Our forecasts suggest it is likely to be a large event and the global temperature for 2027 will increase if a large event does occur.”
It happens when the temperature rise is at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
The Met Office added that the impacts in European weather are harder to identify but it’s “important to note that impacts don’t ramp up with the size of El Niño”.
El Niño’s effects are usually strongest around December, and the name comes from the Spanish “El Niño de Navidad, “the Christ Child”, because Peruvian fishermen first noticed it around Christmas time.
The last El Nino happened in 2023, and led to changes in weather patterns, including monsoons, largely across the tropics.