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Migrants are now being picked up by so-called taxi boats in Northern France before crossing the Channel, to try and evade authorities patrolling the beach, Britain’s equivalent to the FBI has warned.
The National Crime Agency says the threat from organised immigration crime is expected to remain high and could increase because of the war in Iran.
Graeme Biggar, the agency’s director general, said: “It’s unsurprising, it’s what happens when there’s conflict.
“And I would be surprised if there wasn’t some kind of increase in demand.”
Outlining his annual threat assessment, Mr Biggar said last year saw the Horn of Africa emerge as the main source of migrants coming to the UK, replacing previous peaks of Vietnamese and Albanians.
But he said efforts both by the National Crime Agency and overseas partners, meant that smuggling gangs have been forced to change tactics.
“Following French disruptions on the beaches, the criminals have switched to using ‘taxi boats’,” he said, “where the boat is inflated and launched on a canal or river and then sailed along the beaches picking up passengers.”
“And following our squeezing of the supply chain of boats and engines, the criminals have crammed more people on each boat, from an average of 53 to 62.
“Hence how, while fewer boats arrived last year, more people did.”
There were 41,472 small boat arrivals to the UK in 2025, a 13% increase on 2024’s 36,816.
The number of boats crossing, however, declined by 3% – from 695 to 672.
The head of the agency added: “It has got harder for criminals to get hold of boats and engines.
There was a steady flow – but we have disrupted that and now they’re having to go through harder routes, which is adding to the cost of their business model.”
The NCA said tackling organised immigration crime remains their key priority – with a quarter of their casework involving work to go after smuggling gangs.